Bitcoin Holds Near $77,300 as CPI and Fed Hike Risks Loom
Bitcoin traded near $77,300, remaining largely range-bound ahead of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) report and the Federal Reserve’s September policy meeting. Bitcoin was reported at about $77,335, down roughly 1% over 24 hours.
CME FedWatch pricing showed a 67.1% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike and a 32.9% chance of no change, with markets assigning little probability to a cut. A hotter-than-expected CPI reading could reinforce higher-rate expectations and pressure Bitcoin, while a softer result near 3.2% could weaken hike odds and support an upside test.
Oil prices added to inflation concerns after reported attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure reduced pipeline throughput by about 700,000 barrels per day and production capacity by nearly 600,000 barrels per day. WTI crude moved above $100 a barrel, increasing the risk of persistent inflation and tighter monetary policy.
On-chain cost-basis data showed more than 326,000 BTC acquired between $76,500 and $80,000, creating significant overhead resistance. Support below the current price appeared thinner, raising the risk of a faster decline if Bitcoin breaks lower. Separately, Singapore’s exchange received approval to provide US traders with direct Bitcoin and Ethereum futures access under a new CFTC framework. Bitcoin’s short-term direction is likely to depend on the CPI result, Fed expectations, oil prices and whether it can clear the $76,500-$80,000 supply zone.
Bearish
The immediate market bias is bearish because several macro factors favor tighter financial conditions. CME FedWatch pricing indicates a relatively high probability of a 25-basis-point rate hike. Higher interest rates typically reduce liquidity and risk appetite, creating headwinds for Bitcoin and other speculative assets. Oil above $100 a barrel also raises the risk of persistent inflation, which could delay monetary easing.
Bitcoin is additionally facing technical resistance. More than 326,000 BTC reportedly sit in the $76,500-$80,000 cost-basis range, creating a substantial supply overhang. If traders sell after a hotter CPI reading, the thinner support below spot could amplify volatility and accelerate a downside move. Similar reactions have occurred during past inflation surprises and hawkish Federal Reserve meetings, when Bitcoin often sold off alongside equities before stabilizing.
The outlook is conditional rather than decisively negative. A softer CPI reading could reduce rate-hike expectations, support risk assets and allow Bitcoin to challenge the overhead supply zone. Institutional access to Bitcoin and Ethereum futures is also a longer-term adoption positive. However, for the immediate trading window, macro tightening risks and concentrated resistance outweigh those supportive factors. Traders should expect elevated volatility around the CPI release and manage leverage carefully.