Bitcoin Near $80,000 Ahead of Fed and $10.9B Options Expiry
Bitcoin traded near $80,300 on Monday after holding above $79,200 for a third day. Traders are watching three consecutive sessions of potential catalysts: the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday, Coinbase and Strategy earnings on Thursday, and about $10.9 billion in Bitcoin options expiring Friday.
Recent pressure includes $773.5 million in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF outflows on Thursday and Friday, oil prices above $100 a barrel, and expectations that the Fed will keep rates high. A sell-off on Saturday triggered about $820 million in crypto liquidations, while futures funding rates have since returned to neutral.
Bitcoin’s immediate support is $79,221–$79,369. A daily close below that range could expose $78,000, the options market’s max-pain level, followed by the 200-day EMA near $76,348. On the upside, traders are watching the 50-day EMA at $80,808, resistance around $81,390–$81,840, and $82,850. The options market has more calls than puts, but large put positions at $75,000 and $70,000 signal downside hedging. With macroeconomic events and earnings approaching, Bitcoin’s next move may depend on whether buyers defend support or the catalysts renew selling pressure.
Neutral
The news is neutral overall because it describes a market waiting for several high-impact events rather than a clear directional catalyst. Bitcoin has held above the $79,221–$79,369 support area, and neutral futures funding suggests that leveraged positioning has cooled after roughly $820 million in liquidations. These factors may help limit immediate forced selling.
However, near-term risks lean lower. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $773.5 million in outflows over two sessions, oil remains above $100 a barrel, and traders are alert to hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve. A break below support could bring $78,000 into view, followed by the 200-day EMA near $76,348. Conversely, a recovery above the 50-day EMA at $80,808 and resistance near $81,390–$81,840 could improve short-term sentiment.
As in previous periods when Fed decisions and large options expiries overlapped, traders may reduce risk or hedge ahead of the events, increasing volatility without guaranteeing a sustained trend. The Friday expiry, worth about $10.9 billion, could amplify moves around key strike prices, while earnings from Coinbase and Strategy may influence crypto-sector sentiment. In the longer term, the Fed’s policy path, ETF flows, and broader inflation and oil trends are more likely to shape Bitcoin demand than the expiry alone. The outlook is therefore balanced, with a downside bias if support fails but potential for a rebound if buyers defend it and macro signals are less hawkish than feared.