Bitcoin nears $63.5K weekly close as traders warn of ’terrible’ Mondays
Bitcoin (BTC) is consolidating near two-week highs ahead of the weekly close, trading around the $62.7K area linked to the 200-week SMA. A trader warning highlights BTC’s “absolutely terrible” Monday tendency: the past seven Mondays allegedly saw major weakness, raising the risk that price could rollover after the weekend bounce.
Despite caution, bulls pushed BTC toward ~$63,450 on Saturday, supported by thinner exchange order books and short-covering dynamics. Exitpump pointed to stronger passive supply pressing price from above, while CoinGlass data showed short-position liquidations totaling about $167 million over 24 hours—fuel consistent with a classic short squeeze.
Technically, the key question is whether the ~$62.6K “Weekly 200MA” holds as support or whether liquidity clearance simply precedes another decline.
On the macro/flows side, QCP Capital flagged “greener shoots” for crypto and risk assets. The main cited catalyst is renewed net inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs after a streak of outflows. BTC spot ETFs reportedly reversed with a $224M inflow on Thursday, following a broader risk-on shift driven by softer Fed expectations after US nonfarm payrolls. CME’s FedWatch tool indicates nearly an 80% probability the Fed holds rates at the July 29 meeting, but QCP expects additional CPI confirmation for wider dovish repricing.
Bitcoin traders now face a mix of supportive ETF flows and a historically bearish Monday pattern, making $62.6K–$63.5K a likely battleground for near-term positioning.
Neutral
The article balances two opposing forces. On the bullish side, renewed inflows into US spot Bitcoin ETFs ($224M reported on Thursday) and softer Fed expectations (near-80% odds of a hold on July 29 per FedWatch) improve near-term demand for Bitcoin. On the bearish side, multiple traders emphasize a recurring pattern: the past seven Mondays have been “absolutely terrible” for BTC, and the market is approaching/contending with a major long-term technical level (around the 200-week SMA near ~$62.7K).
This is similar to prior cycle episodes where ETF/flow improvements boosted weekend-to-weekday strength, but long-term averages later acted as magnets for pullbacks. For traders, the immediate takeaway is that $62.6K–$62.7K support and the ability to maintain above it will determine whether the move extends (bullish continuation) or snaps back toward liquidity-clearing behavior (bearish reversal). In the longer run, if ETF inflows persist and CPI confirms a dovish shift, the Monday risk may matter less; if not, the historical Monday weakness could reassert itself.