Bitcoin Losses Hit $410M Weekly as Net P/L Slides and STH SOPR Stays Below 1.0
On-chain data compiled by analyst Axel Adler shows Bitcoin (BTC) pain is intensifying. The 7-day moving average of Net Realized Profit/Loss fell to about -$410 million in early April, down $154 million versus the prior week—suggesting continued loss-selling by holders exiting below cost basis.
A second indicator warns the stress is not over: Short-Term Holder SOPR has remained below 1.0 for nine consecutive days. Since SOPR below 1.0 means short-term holders are selling at a loss, a multi-day run indicates a sustained loss-driven regime rather than a one-off capitulation moment.
Adler notes historical context: cumulative realized losses since Oct 2025 are roughly -$64.2B, about half of the -$125.2B total seen during the 2021–2022 bear market. That implies pressure is real, but not at the most extreme “final capitulation” phase.
Price action aligns with the cautious tone. BTC is near $66,000 after failing to hold above $70,000. The article highlights a range roughly $62,000–$72,000 and chart structure still tilted bearish, with moving averages acting as resistance and demand lacking during consolidation.
Traders looking for confirmation were pointed to a potential relief signal: the 7-day Net Realized P/L recovering above 1.0 with sustained follow-through, alongside SOPR returning above 1.0—otherwise, BTC may continue chopping or retesting lower support.
Bearish
The article’s core message is bearish for BTC because two separate on-chain measures point to ongoing loss-selling rather than a completed capitulation.
1) Net Realized Profit/Loss (7D MA) worsening to about -$410M implies realized exits are increasingly at a loss. In past bear-market episodes, sustained or accelerating negative realized P/L often precedes choppy downside or another leg lower rather than an immediate durable bottom.
2) Short-Term Holder SOPR staying below 1.0 for nine straight days suggests the cohort is consistently selling under cost. Historically, once SOPR regimes persist, markets typically need a clear “relief confirmation” (SOPR back above 1.0) or else capitulation simply continues in waves.
3) Price context supports the data: BTC failing to reclaim $70K and consolidating in roughly $62K–$72K with moving averages acting as resistance increases the probability that rallies get sold and any bounce may be used to reduce exposure.
Short-term, traders should expect volatility and weaker bounce durability until SOPR and realized P/L show stabilization. Long-term, the data says the selloff pressure is meaningful but not yet at the extreme final-capitulation level seen in the 2021–2022 bear market—so a full recovery may still require additional confirmation and time rather than a quick reversal.