New Bitcoin Buyers Realised $1.5B/day Losses as Selloff Echoes June 2022
On-chain metrics show recent Bitcoin downside forced 2025–2026 buyers to realise roughly $1.5 billion in losses per day during the latest selloff, a level comparable to the June 2022 low. Analyst Checkmate used the Net Realised Profit/Loss indicator to show cohorts from 2025 and 2026 moved into net loss territory, while older cohorts largely booked profits. Glassnode’s Relative Unrealized Loss has also risen to about 16% of market cap, mirroring early May 2022 structure. At the time of reporting BTC traded near $69,300, down more than 11% over the prior week. Key implications: concentrated loss-taking among recent entrants increases short-term downside pressure, pushes unrealized losses higher, and may elevate liquidation and volatility risk; older holders taking profits can provide some selling absorption. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, net realised loss, unrealized loss, selloff, on-chain analysis. Secondary/semantic keywords: cohort selling, realized P/L, Glassnode, market capitulation, volatility.
Bearish
The news points to concentrated loss realization among 2025–2026 buyers — about $1.5B/day — and a rise in relative unrealized loss to ~16%. This combination typically increases short-term downward pressure: recent entrants who are now underwater are likelier to sell into weakness, creating cascade risk and higher volatility. Comparable patterns occurred around June 2022 and May 2022, when elevated realized/unrealized losses accompanied deeper drawdowns and forced capitulation before recovery. Offsetting factors include profit-taking by older cohorts, which can absorb some selling, and miners or institutions stepping in at lower prices. For traders: expect higher intraday volatility, expanded ranges, and increased liquidation risk for leveraged positions in the short term. Eventual market reaction depends on whether buying interest emerges to absorb losses — if not, the selloff could extend; if strong bids materialize (e.g., heavy stablecoin flows, institutional buys), a relief rally is possible. In summary, the immediate outlook is bearish, with potential for a capitulation-driven bottom if selling exhausts itself as in previous cycles.