95% of Bitcoin Mined: Halving Delays Supply Shock
Bitcoin has now seen 95% of its maximum supply mined, with approximately 19.95 million BTC in circulation and about 1.05 million coins left. However, the anticipated Bitcoin supply shock remains deferred due to the protocol’s halving schedule, which reduces issuance exponentially over time. The next halving in 2028 will cut block rewards to 1.56 BTC, pushing the network to around 97.5% mined by 2032 and over 99% by 2040, with the final satoshi expected in 2140. The mining-related supply shock is largely in the past, and Bitcoin’s scarcity is now governed by a fixed supply versus demand dynamic. An estimated 3–4 million BTC are permanently lost, and over 70% of coins have remained dormant for more than a year. Institutional demand, notably from ETF custodians, further absorbs circulating supply. Mining today mainly secures the network and collects fees, rather than expanding supply. As a result, price movements will hinge on demand rather than new issuance, keeping a major supply shock on hold.
Neutral
This news is neutral because the milestone of 95% mined was widely expected and already priced into markets. The halving schedule’s exponential slow-down of new Bitcoin issuance means no abrupt supply shock will occur, limiting immediate trading impacts. Historically, past halving events led to gradual price appreciation over months rather than sharp short-term spikes, as markets anticipate changes in advance. In the short term, Bitcoin prices are likely to remain stable, driven by demand-side factors rather than new supply. Long-term, the increasing scarcity supports a bullish outlook on Bitcoin’s value, but the deferred supply shock means traders should focus on demand indicators like institutional inflows and adoption trends.