Bitcoin Holds Narrow Range Amid Middle East Tensions as Hedge Status and Market Correlations Evolve
Bitcoin remains trapped in a tight $103,600–$109,300 range despite escalating Israel-Iran tensions, challenging its traditional role as a geopolitical hedge. On-chain data show declining exchange reserves, growing institutional adoption and a daily squeeze pattern that often precedes sharp volatility. Key moving averages—the 50-day SMA at $104,525 and bullish 100-/200-day SMAs—offer support, but muted volume suggests traders await a decisive catalyst. Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s correlation with tech stocks has risen (0.68 to the Nasdaq 100), and a $100 million Nobitex hack failed to trigger the expected spike in volatility. Ethereum likewise traded narrowly between $2,120 and $2,330 after 871,000 ETH whale inflows. Bitcoin dominance is climbing toward 66%, signaling capital preservation under risk-aversion. Traders should watch for a break above resistance or below support, monitor Bitcoin’s market correlation and dominance shifts, and prepare for heightened volatility once geopolitical clarity emerges.
Neutral
The news highlights Bitcoin’s continued range-bound trading amid geopolitical tensions and evolving market correlations, signaling neither a clear bullish nor bearish trend. On one hand, declining exchange reserves, institutional adoption and support from key SMAs lay the groundwork for a potential breakout. On the other hand, muted volume, failure of major geopolitical incidents and rising correlation with tech stocks suggest price may continue sideways until a decisive catalyst appears. Short-term traders should prepare for volatility upon breaking the $109,300 resistance or $103,600 support. Long-term investors will monitor Bitcoin dominance and hedge properties as indicators of capital flows and risk appetite.