Crypto Funds: Bitcoin May Not Be at Bottom Yet, With Few Bets on $100K by Year-End
According to The Block’s Funding interviews, most crypto funds believe Bitcoin has not yet reached a bottom and could fall further. Finality Capital partner expects the “real bottom” around late Q3 or early Q4. Digital Asset Capital Management executives take a “relatively neutral” stance for the next 12 months, while Hypersphere Ventures founder says sentiment is broadly bearish because other sectors (AI, aerospace, health tech, defense tech) look more attractive.
Some longer-term investors see the current drawdown as a buying opportunity. VanEck’s digital asset IR lead said confidence in Bitcoin remains strong, but many funds are not rushing to deploy capital. Instead, they are holding more cash and reducing directional exposure, waiting for a better setup. M11 Fund prefers DeFi projects with revenue and clear product-market fit.
Key risks highlighted include Strategy’s (former MicroStrategy) debt raising and potential threats from quantum computing. In contrast, some argue Bitcoin could remain resilient through upgrades that address quantum risk.
As potential catalysts, multiple funds cited rate cuts, easing geopolitical tensions, improved liquidity, and progress on a “Clarity” bill.
Few funds offered end-of-year price targets. Those that did were generally not bullish on Bitcoin breaking $100K. Hypersphere’s baseline is about $55,000, while Finality expects a bottom in a $45,000–$55,000 range before a rebound toward $65,000–$75,000.
Bearish
The article’s core takeaway is bearish for short-term price action: most interviewed crypto funds do not believe Bitcoin has bottomed and expect further downside or a later, lower “real bottom” (late Q3/early Q4). Even the more cautious/neutral respondents are not calling for aggressive risk-on positioning, preferring higher cash levels and reduced directional exposure.
This matters for trading because it suggests limited immediate dip-buying demand and a continued preference for waiting—often associated with choppier downside volatility rather than a smooth reversal. The few targets provided also cluster well below $100K, implying expectations for a rally toward six-figure levels remain muted.
Historically, similar consensus “not-yet-bottom” narratives tend to delay sustained breakouts until liquidity improves (e.g., rate-cut cycles) or catalysts reduce macro/geopolitical pressure. Here, funds explicitly cite rate cuts, liquidity improvement, and regulatory clarity (Clarity bill) as catalysts—meaning the market may trade as “wait for macro” rather than “price already reset.” Longer-term confidence (e.g., VanEck) can cap extreme downside, but the dominant positioning (cash + lower exposure) supports a near-term bearish bias for Bitcoin volatility and spot/derivatives flows.