Bitcoin November Returns Averaged 34.59% Across 16 Years
Bitcoin has risen in 10 of its 16 November trading periods since 2010, with an average return of 34.59% and a median return of 10.26%. The average was lifted by an exceptional 453.6% gain in November 2013; the largest November decline was 36.41% in 2018. Bitcoin fell 7.32% in October 2026, its fourth-weakest October return on record. Ethereum dropped 16.06%, its second-weakest October result. The historical November figures offer context for traders but do not predict future performance.
Neutral
The figures provide a historical seasonal reference rather than a new market catalyst, so the expected direct impact is neutral. Bitcoin’s 10 positive Novembers out of 16 and 34.59% average return could encourage some traders to look for seasonal upside. However, the 10.26% median is much lower than the average, which was boosted by the exceptional 453.6% gain in November 2013. The 2018 decline of 36.41% also shows that November losses can be substantial. In the short term, traders may monitor positioning, spot demand, derivatives funding and broader risk sentiment instead of treating the historical average as a signal. The weak October performance of Bitcoin and Ethereum may also temper optimism. Over the longer term, the small sample and wide range of outcomes make these statistics insufficient to establish a reliable seasonal pattern. As in past years, price direction will depend more on market conditions and catalysts than on calendar averages.