Bitcoin NUPL cycle clock warns BTC may break below $58K
On-chain analysis using **Bitcoin NUPL** suggests a bear-market bottom is not yet in sight. CryptoQuant notes the NUPL score is ~0.158 (last seen in early 2023), and when smoothed via 30- and 100-day EMAs it has acted as a “clean cycle clock.” Historically, the 100-day EMA of **Bitcoin NUPL** has typically fallen below zero near major cycle bottoms (late 2011, Jan 2015, Dec 2018, and Nov 2022/FTX-era low).
With BTC/USD around $60k, CryptoQuant shows the NUPL 100-day EMA near 0.215, implying there is “room left to drop” to match prior bear-market lows. However, CryptoQuant also flags that NUPL’s history shows higher lows, so a below-zero print may not be strictly required—either the 100-day EMA crosses zero as before, or this could be the first cycle bottom without it (aligned with the “shallower-each-time” trend).
Timing is not specified, but CryptoQuant calls the zero line the “level to watch in the coming weeks.” Related commentary also suggests capitulation may still be a process rather than a completed event, echoing 2022-style patterns where macro lows often arrive before a clearer bull reversal.
Key takeaway for traders: **Bitcoin NUPL** is pointing to potential downside risk before the next confirmed bottom, even as some on-chain reversal signals appear elsewhere.
Bearish
The article’s core signal is bearish: **Bitcoin NUPL** (especially its 100-day EMA) is still above the historical “cycle bottom” zone. With BTC around ~$60k, CryptoQuant argues the metric implies further downside is possible before a typical bear-market bottom pattern completes. This resembles prior cycles where a more decisive move (often near a 100-day NUPL EMA crossing/approaching the zero line) occurred before a sustained reversal—late 2011, Jan 2015, Dec 2018, and Nov 2022.
Short term, traders may face continued volatility and likely demand stronger proof (NUPL moving closer to/through its key levels, plus confirmation from other on-chain measures) before sizing into longs. Long term, the article allows for a “shallower-each-time” scenario where bottoms could be less deep than before, but it still frames the current regime as not yet fully bottomed. Net: until **Bitcoin NUPL** reaches levels consistent with prior cycle lows, upside rallies may be vulnerable to sell-the-rip behavior.