Tariff Delay & RBA Hold Spur Asia FX Rebound – Crypto Outlook
Asia FX markets rebounded after US President Trump flagged that the planned August 1 tariffs are “not 100% certain”. The decision to delay Trump tariffs knocked the US Dollar Index down 0.2% and boosted Asia FX. Currencies like the Chinese Yuan, Korean Won, and Singapore Dollar first tumbled as traders sought safe havens in the US Dollar and Japanese Yen. However, technical rebounds and short covering helped Asia FX recover.
The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) held rates at 3.85% in a surprise 6–3 vote. AUD/USD jumped as Australia’s business conditions hit their strongest level since March. Market attention now turns to the next RBA decision. A 25 bp cut could weaken the AUD and reinforce global easing expectations. A hawkish hold could lift the currency and signal economic strength.
Trade tensions, low inflation, central bank divergence, and geopolitical risks will keep volatility high across forex and crypto markets. For crypto traders, the weakening US Dollar traditionally supports risk assets. Bitcoin and altcoins may benefit from dollar softness. Traders should diversify, monitor macro data, use stop-losses, and consider hedging to manage volatility.
Bullish
The delay of Trump tariffs and the RBA’s surprise rate hold have weakened the US Dollar and restored risk appetite in Asia FX. Historically, a softer dollar boosts demand for risk assets, including cryptocurrencies. While trade tensions and geopolitical risks may cause bouts of volatility, the overall shift toward a weaker dollar and higher liquidity is likely to be bullish for crypto markets. In the short term, traders may see increased momentum and technical bounces in Bitcoin and altcoins. Over the longer term, ongoing central bank divergence and dollar softness support a favorable backdrop for crypto risk-on flows.