Bitcoin’s October Outlook: Cycle Peak Warning vs Bullish Momentum
Alphractal CEO Joao Wedson has reignited the fractal cycle debate by projecting an October 2025 peak for Bitcoin (BTC) based on repeating four-year structures. His overlay suggests a parabolic top near that date, followed by a correction through 2026 that could dip to $100,000 before rallying above $140,000. Wedson cautions that momentum divergences and new market drivers—like ETF inflows and institutional holdings—could alter this pattern.
Contrasting views emerge on X: independent analyst Quinten argues liquidity cycles are still unfolding, predicting only a local October high. Short-term traders focus on technicals, highlighting $113,000 as a key resistance. Crypto Fella sees strength in BTC’s rebound above $112,000, while Merlijn the Trader identifies consecutive bullish patterns—a July bull flag and an August falling wedge—pointing to potential upside toward August highs.
BTC/USD has repeatedly defended the $110,000 region, preserving its bullish structure. As October approaches, market participants debate whether it will be an “Uptober” of continued gains or a “Rektober” reversal.
Neutral
The news presents conflicting signals: Wedson’s fractal cycle warning echoes past Bitcoin peaks (notably late 2017) and suggests a major correction, while recent price action has formed reliable bullish patterns—bull flag and falling wedge—similar to setups seen before the 2020 halving rally. Defending the $110,000 support and reclaiming $112,000–$113,000 resistance indicates strong buyer commitment, and institutional milestones like Peru’s regulated crypto payment underpin longer-term demand. However, momentum divergences on higher timeframes and the historical tendency for post-peak drawdowns warrant caution. This balance of medium-term caution and short-term technical strength points to a neutral market stance until a clear breakout or breakdown confirms direction.