Bitcoin OG Holder Selling Slips to 19-Month Low, September Bottom Signal
Bitcoin (BTC) OG (over 5-year) holders have cut spending to a 19-month low, adding to a growing “Bitcoin bottom” narrative. CryptoQuant data shows the 90-day average STXO (spent transaction outputs) for long-term holders fell to 962 BTC, the lowest since November 2024. This follows three prior spending peaks over the past two years, with the 90-day average topping at 3,860 BTC (May 2024), 3,200 BTC (Feb 2025), and 2,360 BTC (Sep 2025).
Analyst Darkfost notes this cycle’s long-term holder selling is the highest on record, but the current readings suggest reduced pressure. Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr. highlights a divergence between newer and older capital: aNUPL has slipped to about -0.14 (holders back in unrealized losses near ~$62,500), while STH capital has shrunk roughly -56%. His view: “weak hands are capitulating, strong hands are not reacting,” implying stress is more concentrated among newer holders.
Timing signals also point to a potential BTC bottom. Crypto analyst LP ties prior halving-cycle behavior to the next window: the 826-day marker lands on July 6, which maps to an early-September bottoming range. Trader Titan adds a downside-liquidity focus, citing an untapped quarterly low near $58,900 and a fair value gap roughly $49,000–$58,900, suggesting a Q3–Q4 bottom if those levels remain in focus.
Overall, BTC holder behavior is improving, but the market still shows pockets of ongoing weakness—especially among newer investors.
Neutral
The article is moderately supportive but not a clean bullish trigger. On the positive side, BTC “OG” holder selling pressure has eased sharply: the 90-day STXO average dropped to 962 BTC (19-month low), and long-term holders appear close to their cost basis rather than accelerating liquidation. This often reduces downside probability because sustained selling from conviction holders can be a key driver of drawdowns.
However, other indicators still point to stress rather than full capitulation. aNUPL is negative (around -0.14), and Adler Jr. stresses that the STH (shorter-term holders) capital has contracted materially (~-56%), implying weaker hands are still being worn down. That combination typically means: short-term volatility can persist, and bottoms may take time to confirm.
The halving-cycle “826 days” mapping to an early-September window is directionally useful for planning, but historically such models can be late or front-run by macro and liquidity conditions. Traders may therefore treat this as a probability-boost for a bottoming process (neutral), watching whether BTC can hold key liquidity zones (~58,900 and the 49,000–58,900 gap) into early July and whether STH selling continues to fade in subsequent weeks. In the long run, improving long-term holder behavior is a constructive backdrop; in the short run, confirmation will likely require additional price stabilization and reduced negative momentum in newer-holder metrics.