Key On-Chain Indicators Suggest Bitcoin Rebound to $130K
Bitcoin has retraced about 16.9% from its record high of $126,199, but multiple on-chain signals imply a bullish reversal. The Net Unrealized Profit (NUP) index sits at 0.47, just below the 0.5 threshold that historically precedes rallies, as seen in January 2024, July 2024 and April 2025. Mining activity also points to a bottom, with the CryptoQuant mining index at –0.3 signalling reduced miner selling and increased accumulation. Meanwhile, a potential golden cross—where the 50-day moving average crosses above the 200-day—could trigger fresh buying. Institutional investors have bought $523.98 million of Bitcoin recently. Spot traders sold $71.9 million last week after a larger $536.58 million purchase the previous month. VALR CEO Farzam Ehsani says a breakout above $110,000, along with renewed ETF inflows and improving macro data, could drive Bitcoin to $130,000 by year-end.
Bullish
The combination of on-chain metrics and technical indicators historically marks key turning points. The NUP index’s 0.47 reading aligns with past bottoms in Jan 2024, Jul 2024 and Apr 2025, each followed by 30%–50% rallies. Similarly, miner accumulation often signals that supply pressure is easing, reducing downward momentum. The forming golden cross tends to attract momentum traders and institutional flows. Recent purchases of $523.98 million by institutions underscore renewed confidence, while spot market corrections may offer accumulation opportunities. Should Bitcoin break above the critical $110,000 level, it could trigger further ETF inflows and wider retail participation. In the short term, traders may see a relief rally around these technical thresholds. Over the longer horizon, a sustained bull cycle could resume if macro catalysts like U.S. fiscal clarity and favorable CPI data materialize, potentially pushing BTC to test or exceed its all-time high near $130,000.