On-chain metrics point to six more months of Bitcoin bearishness
Bitcoin fell 4.6% on February 24 and market sentiment plunged: the Crypto Fear & Greed Index hit 5, an extreme-low last seen in 2019. Glassnode reported the 90-day realized profit/loss ratio below 1, meaning average holders have realized losses over the past three months — a shift into a regime of “excess loss-realizing.” Historical patterns suggest phases with this ratio under 1 tend to persist for about six months. CryptoQuant’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) has been declining since October 2025; if NUPL falls below 0, market cap would be below realized cap, indicating most holders are at a loss and signalling deep discount conditions that typically attract longer-term value buyers. The article warns that correlated selling in BTC and ETH, plus extreme fear readings, point to continued risk-off behaviour and likely further bearish price action over the next six months. Key on-chain metrics to watch: 90-day realized profit/loss ratio (main keyword: realized profit/loss ratio), Crypto Fear & Greed Index, and NUPL.
Bearish
The article documents multiple on-chain and sentiment indicators pointing to sustained downside risk. The 90-day realized profit/loss ratio below 1 shows that, over the past three months, more BTC has been sold at a loss than at a profit — a clear sign of distribution and capitulation pressure. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index at 5 signals extreme risk-off sentiment, which historically coincides with increased volatility and continued selling. NUPL’s downward trend since October 2025, and the possibility of it crossing below 0, would confirm broad unrealized losses across holders and typically marks deep-discount territory that precedes a longer-term mean reversion only after prolonged weakness. Correlated selling in BTC and ETH increases systemic risk and reduces liquidity, making sharp recoveries less likely in the short term. Past cycles show that prolonged sub-1 realized profit/loss regimes and negative NUPL can last several months and often precede a consolidation or bottoming process rather than an immediate bullish reversal. For traders, this implies a higher probability of continued lower highs and lower lows in the near term, favoring defensive positioning: reduced spot exposure, tighter risk management on leverage, and watching on-chain thresholds (realized P/L ratio crossing >1 or NUPL turning positive) as potential structural buy signals for longer-term re-entry.