Bitcoin On-Chain Signals: Sharpe, MVRV Fair Value, Whale Flows

CoinMarketCap researchers say Bitcoin’s on-chain picture is mixed and not yet confirming a bull market. The Bitcoin Sharpe Signal (risk-adjusted return momentum) is around 0.40, below the 0.50 level that has historically preceded stronger upside; it’s still in a “pre-signal” zone. The MVRV Z-Score is 0.56, recovering from 0.30 in February, but well under the January level of 1.42. That places Bitcoin in a “fair value” band (roughly 0.4–0.8), suggesting no overheated or deeply cheap conditions. Wallet flows add nuance: holders with $1M+ withdrawing over 6,000 BTC from exchanges during the week of March 24 points to whale accumulation. At the same time, short-term holders (under 155 days) are selling at a loss, with a loss-to-profit ratio around 8–10x since January. However, the broader “confluence model” shows zero active bullish signals because none of its four recovery criteria are met. Traders referenced in the article remain cautious: some expect Bitcoin to revisit $60,000 and potentially $50,000 if support breaks, while another warns of a possible move toward $40,000 before a sustained rebound. On the other hand, a weekly RSI reading is described as oversold for only the fourth time in history (2019/2020/2022 analogs saw large gains). The market is trading just under $70,000 at the time of writing.