On-chain Signals Suggest Bitcoin Bull Cycle Still Intact
On-chain metrics indicate Bitcoin’s bull cycle remains active despite extended price consolidation. Realized capitalization reached new all-time highs, signalling continued real capital inflows into the network even as BTC traded around $87,700 with ~ $49.6 billion 24‑hour volume. Long-term holders attempted to distribute in late 2025 but selling pressure was absorbed, and those holders have returned to accumulation. Analysts note Bitcoin has been range-bound between roughly $80,000–$120,000 for about 18 months; the recent correction from peak was ~36%. Key technical support at $87,600 held after the latest Fed meeting, and liquidity clusters around $91,180 are potential upside targets. Market commentary argues the current setup resembles consolidation before continuation rather than a cycle top: rising realized cap, failed distribution by smart money, and renewed accumulation together support a bullish case, though outcomes are not guaranteed.
Bullish
The article highlights three constructive on-chain and market-structure signals: rising realized cap (fresh capital inflows), a failed distribution event by long-term holders followed by renewed accumulation, and defended technical support at ~$87,600 with a nearby liquidity target at ~$91,180. Historically, periods where smart-money selling is absorbed during consolidation and realized cap advances have preceded upward breakouts (e.g., prior post-consolidation rallies in 2015–2017 and 2020–2021). For traders, this suggests a higher probability of bullish resolution: short-term, expect potential volatility with tests of lows that could shake out weak hands before rallies; look for confirmation via sustained volume on upmoves and preservation of $87.6k support. Longer term, continued capital inflows and accumulation by experienced holders improve supply dynamics, reducing tail risk and increasing the chance of another leg higher. Risks remain — macro shocks, rapid Fed policy changes, or failure to reclaim higher liquidity zones would negate the thesis — so trade management (position sizing, stops around key support) is advised.