Glassnode: Bitcoin Onchain Stress Mirrors Early 2022 — Rising Supply in Loss and Weakening Demand
Glassnode’s weekly report finds multiple onchain and off-chain metrics for Bitcoin now resemble conditions seen at the start of the 2022 bear market. Key findings: supply held at a loss has risen to about 7.1 million BTC (7-day SMA), near the early-2022 range; the spot price has fallen below the 0.75 supply-quantile for top buyers, leaving >25% of supply underwater near a $96,100 implied cost basis. Realized-capital net inflows persist (~$8.69bn/month) but are far below June peak (~$64.3bn/month). Off-chain indicators show weakening demand: ETF outflows (IBIT six straight weeks, >$2.7bn redemptions over five weeks), falling spot volumes, negative cumulative volume delta on Binance, and a rolling Coinbase premium. Derivatives data points to reduced risk appetite — open interest has declined since November, perpetual funding is mostly neutral with occasional negative prints, and funding premium has cooled. Options flows show cautious positioning, with upside being sold ahead of a Fed (FOMC) meeting and earlier put buying shifting later to call activity as price stabilized. For traders: elevated supply-in-loss, weaker spot demand and falling OI imply greater downside risk and lower volatility from speculative leverage; monitor realized-cap inflows, ETF flows, Binance CVD, funding rates and OI for reversal signals.
Bearish
The report highlights multiple risk factors that historically correlate with downward pressure: elevated supply held at a loss (7.1M BTC), spot price below the top-buyer 0.75 quantile, weakening ETF demand (IBIT outflows), falling spot volumes and negative exchange CVD, plus declining open interest and neutral-to-negative funding — all indicate reduced risk appetite and increased selling pressure. These are similar to onchain patterns observed at the start of the 2022 bear market, which preceded extended price weakness. Short-term impact: heightened downside risk and potential for further selling if ETF outflows and rising supply-in-loss continue; volatility may be muted due to lower leverage (reduced OI and cooled funding). Long-term impact: if realized-cap inflows recover and ETF demand stabilizes, conditions could normalize; however, persistent weak spot demand and elevated underwater supply would prolong consolidation or a protracted bear phase. Traders should watch ETF flows, realized-cap net change, exchange CVD, funding rates and OI for signs of capitulation or renewed demand — a sustained recovery in these metrics would flip the outlook toward neutral or bullish.