3.8B Bitcoin Options Expire Ahead of Jackson Hole Speech, Volatility Expected
A total of $3.82 billion in Bitcoin options expired ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech, with BTC testing intraday lows near $112,047. The put-to-call ratio stands at 1.30 and the max pain level at $118,000—both pointing to a bearish tilt and heightened demand for downside protection. Analysts at Deribit report that 25-delta risk reversals show puts trading six volatility points above calls. Over $4.8 billion in crypto options (including $948 million in ETH) will expire tomorrow. Traders expect the speech to drive a ±2% move in BTC price, as September rate-cut odds fall to 70%. Short-term implied volatility has eased, suggesting institutions anticipate a controlled market reaction even amid cautious positioning. Market participants will watch for interest rate and liquidity signals to guide trading strategies.
Bearish
The heavy put-to-call ratio (1.30) and a max pain level above spot price indicate traders are positioning for downside risk, a stance typically seen before bearish moves. Historical precedents—such as pre-speech options expiries in 2023—also showed increased volatility and short-term BTC declines when puts dominated. With September rate-cut odds falling and traders hedging aggressively, the near-term outlook tilts bearish. However, long-term stability may prevail if Powell’s remarks exceed cautious expectations and reassure markets.