Bitcoin Options Expiry Near $10.4B as BTC Falls Below $77,000
Bitcoin fell to about $76,917 on 30 October, down 4.98% over 24 hours, ahead of a major Bitcoin options expiry on Deribit. Updated data put the expiring BTC options’ notional value at about $10.39 billion, alongside roughly $783 million in ETH options. Many calls are concentrated at $90,000–$100,000 and are out of the money at current prices, leaving them at risk of expiring without intrinsic value.
Deribit’s Jean-David Péquignot said short-dated 25-delta put implied volatility exceeded call volatility by more than 10 volatility points after BTC dropped below $80,000. That skew suggests traders are paying more for downside protection. The 30-day DVOL stood near 36, above realised volatility of about 31, indicating expectations of increased volatility.
BTC futures open interest was around $53.09 billion, with $107.99 billion in 24-hour futures trading volume. These figures are distinct from options notional value and should not be added together or mistaken for expected liquidations. Traders are watching whether Bitcoin can regain the $78,000–$80,000 range and whether post-expiry hedging adds to short-term price swings.
Bearish
The immediate signal is bearish for Bitcoin: BTC has fallen below $80,000, while options pricing shows a marked premium for puts over calls. This suggests traders are prioritising protection against further losses rather than paying up for upside exposure. The large concentration of calls at $90,000–$100,000 also means many bullish positions are out of the money at current prices.
The expiry itself does not mean that $10.39 billion will be liquidated. Options notional value is not equivalent to forced selling, and it should not be combined with futures open interest. However, dealer hedging and position adjustments around a large expiry can contribute to short-term volatility. A move back above $78,000–$80,000 could ease pressure, while continued weakness may encourage more defensive positioning. Similar large expiries have often produced sharp intraday moves without establishing a lasting trend on their own.
The elevated 30-day DVOL relative to realised volatility points to expectations of larger near-term swings. Over the longer term, the expiry is not inherently bearish; direction will depend more on spot demand, broader risk appetite and whether put demand remains elevated. The bearish classification therefore reflects current price action and options positioning, not a certain forecast of further declines.