Deribit BTC options OI $31.3B ahead of May 29 vs IBIT as $75K max pain nears
Bitcoin options on Deribit are driving positioning ahead of the May 29 expiry. Deribit open interest has risen to about $31.3B, reported to be above BlackRock’s IBIT (around $27B). The article says 80,535 BTC option contracts with roughly $6.25B notional will expire.
Key strikes are shaping expectations. The put/call ratio is 0.86, a modestly bullish tilt, and the largest call exposure sits at the $80,000 strike (about $532M notional). However, “max pain” is concentrated near $75,000, around $2,000 below the spot area referenced near ~$77,000. That placement can increase mean-reversion and “downside gravity” into settlement.
Traders are watching for expiry mechanics. The most active recent contract cited is the 29MAY26 $82,000 call, suggesting some upside positioning. Into May 29, price may show gamma-driven volatility and strike pinning around $75,000 and $80,000, depending on whether BTC breaks higher toward the $80,000 call wall or drifts back toward the $75,000 max pain zone.
For trading, the actionable takeaway is to monitor Bitcoin options flow and whether spot holds above max pain. The direction into expiry is likely to be determined by the tug-of-war between call demand near $80K–$82K and max pain pull toward $75K.
Neutral
The signals are mixed. A put/call ratio of 0.86 and active $82,000 call trading suggest some upside positioning into the May 29 settlement. But max pain is concentrated near $75,000, about $2,000 below spot, which can pull price toward that strike as expiry approaches. With large call interest at $80,000 and the market mechanically sensitive to gamma/strike pinning, near-term volatility is likely without a clear directional edge, making the net impact on BTC price over this horizon neutral.