BTC and ETH Options Expiry and $1.2B Deribit Roll Signal Heightened Volatility, Active Trader Positioning

The recent expiry of over $3.8 billion in Bitcoin and Ethereum options on June 6, 2025, triggered increased market engagement and expectations of greater volatility. Key max pain points were observed at $105,000 for BTC and $2,600 for ETH. Following a period of declining positions, total open interest rebounded by 10%, with institutions remaining dominant, especially on Deribit and CME. Notably, a $1.2 billion notional BTC options trade on Deribit involved selling July 112,000-120,000 calls to fund a September 115,000-140,000 call spread. This trade structure suggests traders anticipate a subdued summer for Bitcoin followed by a possible surge in September, with the market maker absorbing significant Gamma and Theta exposure in expectation of movement after calm. Short-term volatility spiked after a public dispute between Elon Musk and Donald Trump, briefly dropping BTC’s price from $106,000 to $100,000 before a rebound. While near-term risk was only partially offset, the majority of volatility remained concentrated in shorter maturities. ETH options also saw robust buying interest, especially in June calls, pushing up its front-end implied volatility. The options-to-futures open interest ratio for BTC stands at 58.14%, indicating balanced hedging and speculation, whereas ETH’s is lower at 21.19%. Overall, with macroeconomic uncertainty, prominent external factors, and concentrated open interest on main derivatives exchanges, both BTC and ETH are poised for further price swings. Traders should monitor upcoming maturity dates, open interest ratios, and institutional market activity for insights into potential short- and long-term price movements.