Bitcoin $22.6B Options Expire: Rebound or Drop Ahead
A record $22.6 billion in Bitcoin options is set to expire this week, creating a potential catalyst for significant price swings. Bitcoin recently traded near $115,000 after a 3.87% weekly decline but remains up 1.62% over the past month and 32.61% over six months. Technical indicators point to an oversold market: the RSI sits at 37.97 and the 14‐day stochastic reads 14.66. Key support levels are $112,353 and $108,818, while resistance stands at $119,422 and $122,957. A break above $119,422 could unlock roughly 4% upside, targeting $122,957, whereas a drop below $112,353 may lead to a 3% slide toward $108,818. Given the oversold signals and historical patterns around large option expiries, a near‐term rebound appears more likely than a deep correction. Traders should monitor open interest and volatility as the expiry approaches.
Bullish
Bitcoin’s $22.6 billion options expiry historically triggers heightened volatility around key levels. Current oversold signals—RSI near 38 and stochastic at 14.7—coupled with a 32.6% six-month uptrend suggest stronger downside support. Support at $112,353 and $108,818 may curb losses, while resistance at $119,422 and $122,957 offers clear upside targets. Past large expiries, such as in March 2024, saw similar oversold conditions lead to short-term rebounds. Although a breach below support could shave 3–6%, the balance of technical indicators and historical patterns favors a near-term bounce, making the immediate impact bullish.