Bitcoin OTC balances hit record lows, down 400,000 BTC
Bitcoin OTC balances have fallen to record lows, dropping by about 400,000 BTC since 2022, according to CryptoQuant data. The OTC holdings slid from roughly 550,000 BTC to about 150,000 BTC even as whale accumulation continued.
CryptoQuant notes this cycle differs from prior bull runs: OTC liquidity did not rise toward late bull-market periods. Instead, the market signal suggests tighter liquidity while large investors keep absorbing supply. The firm also flags that a stronger rally may start only after whale accumulation slows.
A second on-chain indicator remains weak. CryptoQuant’s adjusted Spent Output Profit Ratio (aSOPR) is still below 1, implying investors are spending coins at a loss, not in profit. The 30-day average also failed to reclaim the 1 threshold, suggesting demand has not yet absorbed selling pressure. Long-Term Holder SOPR has also declined, pointing to smaller profit-taking than in earlier peaks.
Traders should note the mix: shrinking Bitcoin OTC balances can support longer-term supply tightness, but loss-spending metrics point to fragile recovery in the short term.
Neutral
The news is mixed for trading.
On the supply/liquidity side, Bitcoin OTC balances falling by ~400,000 BTC since 2022 signals shrinking off-exchange liquidity. Historically, when whales keep accumulating while liquidity tightens, it can improve the medium-to-long-term bid once sellers run out—so this part leans mildly bullish.
However, recovery-quality signals are not in place. aSOPR below 1 (and the 30-day average also failing to reclaim 1) indicates coins are still being spent at a loss. That often aligns with weaker demand and continued sell pressure in the near term. The Long-Term Holder SOPR trend also suggests smaller profit-taking than earlier peaks, which can mean rallies may be slower to sustain until profitability returns.
In similar past phases, tightening liquidity without a shift in profit/loss metrics frequently produces choppy price action: support can form on dips, but breakout attempts may fail until aSOPR improves. Net effect: neutral—watch for confirmation when OTC balances stop declining and SOPR/aSOPR move back above key thresholds.