Bitcoin Tends to Outperform Gold and S&P 500 After Global Shocks, Study Says
A new Mercado Bitcoin study led by Rony Szuster finds that Bitcoin (BTC) often delivers stronger returns than safe-haven assets like gold and equities such as the S&P 500 in the 60 days after major global shocks. Using “event + 60 days” windows, the report compares periods following events including the COVID-19 outbreak and broad U.S. import tariff announcements.
In the examples cited, Bitcoin rose about 24% after the April 2023 U.S. tariff escalation, outperforming gold (+~8%) and the S&P 500 (+~4%). During early COVID-19 (March 2020), Bitcoin gained around 21%, while both gold and the S&P 500 lagged.
The latest update covers the U.S.-Iran conflict escalation. Since the tensions intensified, Bitcoin is up more than 2.2%, while gold is down about 11% and the S&P 500 down roughly 4.4% (its steepest monthly decline since 2022). Szuster warns traders not to judge Bitcoin too quickly based only on the initial aftermath, as liquidity needs can trigger selling that pressures even traditionally “defensive” assets.
For traders, the key takeaway is that Bitcoin’s relative medium-term strength versus gold and equities has been more consistent than the first few days of sell-offs, though timing risk remains around shock headlines. (Not investment advice; crypto volatility remains high.)
Bullish
The study’s core message is that Bitcoin has tended to recover and outperform gold and the S&P 500 over a medium-term (60-day) horizon after major shocks. The latest reference to the U.S.-Iran escalation—Bitcoin up while gold and equities are down—supports a near-term relative-strength narrative for BTC. However, the author explicitly cautions against judging too early, since liquidity-driven selling can temporarily pressure even defensive assets. Net impact: for BTC itself, the historical pattern plus the current conflict snapshot skew positive for traders positioning for post-shock rebounds, but timing should account for initial volatility spikes.