Bitcoin P/L Margin at -2.2%, Far From -12% Capitulation
Bitcoin saw a modest 1.5% gain over the past 24 hours, trading around $109,500. Blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reports the Bitcoin Trader Realized Profit/Loss Margin has declined to approximately -2.2%, well above the -12% threshold historically associated with major capitulation phases and subsequent price rebounds. Past cycles in April 2025, July 2023, and October 2023 saw margins dip below -12% before Bitcoin rallied from sub-$75,000 back to six-figure levels. At current P/L margins, a textbook capitulation-driven rebound appears unlikely; further price correction or sideways consolidation may precede any strong upside. Bitcoin’s realized price, the average cost basis of all coins, stands near $112,000. Trading below this level underscores weaker investor conviction and elevated selling pressure. For bulls to regain control, Bitcoin must break above the $112,000 realized price, potentially turning the tide toward a rebound with targets near $116,000.
Neutral
CryptoQuant’s data shows Bitcoin’s realized profit/loss margin at around -2.2%, far above the -12% level that historically triggered capitulation-driven rebounds in April 2025, July 2023, and October 2023. With margins nowhere near past capitulation thresholds, a sudden bullish reversal seems unlikely in the short term. Instead, traders could see further minor declines or sideways trading until heavier realized losses occur. Long term, a decisive break above the $112,000 realized price level would be required to shift market sentiment positively and target a rebound toward $116,000. This mirrors past cycles where capitulation lows set the stage for significant rallies.