Bitcoin price: Post-FOMC sell pattern returns; $70k risk

Crypto analyst Ardi says the Bitcoin price has fallen in eight of the last nine post-FOMC windows, averaging about an 11% drop in the following week. The pattern matters because the Federal Reserve’s stance has often been “almost irrelevant” to BTC’s direction after the meeting. In the latest cycle, the Fed concluded its April 28–29 meeting and held rates at 3.50%–3.75% (CME FedWatch had priced in a ~99% hold). Bitcoin was trading around $76k–$79k after a 21% rally from early-month lows near $65k. With the historical average, the Bitcoin price could fall toward roughly $70,000 within a week. The Fed noted solid economic activity but flagged elevated inflation, partly tied to higher global energy prices—an environment that can keep liquidity expectations cautious. Traders typically connect a clearer path to rate cuts with improved risk appetite, a weaker dollar, and better sentiment for crypto; a more cautious Fed can do the opposite. What to watch next: the market is entering a high-volatility period right after the Fed decision, where the historical post-FOMC selloff has repeatedly showed up in the charted data. If the Bitcoin price fails to hold the $70k area, downside momentum could extend; if it quickly absorbs selling, the sell window thesis may weaken.