Bitcoin Posts First Post‑Halving Annual Loss After Late‑2025 Sell‑Off
Bitcoin (BTC) closed 2025 below its opening price — the first time the asset has ended a post‑halving year in the red. After the April 2024 halving BTC rallied to an all‑time high of about $126,080 on Oct. 6, 2025, then reversed more than 30% and finished the year down versus the 2025 open. Market participants argue the historical four‑year halving cycle (2012, 2016, 2020) may no longer reliably predict post‑halving rallies. Traders and analysts point to rising ETF adoption and institutional flows, macro liquidity and interest‑rate dynamics, regulation and geopolitical risks as larger drivers that have shifted Bitcoin’s behavior toward that of a macro risk asset rather than a purely supply‑driven commodity. Commentary ranges from declarations that the four‑year cycle is “over” to views that the cycle still matters but now interacts with structural changes such as locked supply, miner financing and institutional participation. Some market voices warn of further downside — with technical and sentiment-driven scenarios targeting roughly $60k–$70k — while others emphasize elevated volatility and the outsized role of ETF flows in near‑term price moves. For traders: expect higher volatility, heavier sensitivity to ETF and institutional flow data, macro headlines and liquidity conditions, and lower confidence in an automatic post‑halving rally.
Bearish
The news is bearish for BTC price in both the short and medium term. Evidence: BTC failed to sustain its post‑halving rally and closed 2025 more than 30% below its October ATH and below the year open — a rare negative post‑halving outcome that undermines the assumption of an automatic four‑year cycle rally. Increased ETF adoption and institutional flows mean large inflows and outflows can amplify moves in either direction; macro liquidity, rates and regulatory headlines now exert significant influence. For traders this implies heightened downside risk and volatility: stop‑loss clusters, margin liquidations and flow reversals could deepen declines toward the $60k–$70k range cited by some commentators. Over the longer term the structural case for BTC (supply constraints, institutional adoption) remains intact, which may cap extreme losses and support eventual recoveries, but timing is uncertain and price will likely remain correlated with macro conditions and ETF/institutional flow dynamics rather than following a predictable halving timetable. Therefore expect a bearish bias until clear, sustained inflows or macro easing materialize.