Bitcoin’s Move to Quantum-Resistant Crypto Could Take 5–10 Years
Developers and industry figures warn that preparing Bitcoin for quantum computing will be a multi-year effort. Bitcoin Core developer Jameson Lopp and Blockstream CEO Adam Back say current quantum computers are not an immediate threat to Bitcoin’s cryptography, but coordinating a protocol upgrade and migrating funds to quantum-resistant addresses could realistically take five to ten years. The core challenge is logistical: consensus-driven changes require broad coordination among node operators, miners, exchanges, wallet providers and users, and a rushed rollout could introduce vulnerabilities. Migration would likely trigger mass transfers — including long-dormant coins — which increases operational risk and could take years to complete safely. Some investors, including Charles Edwards, warn market perception matters and say Bitcoin (BTC) price could be pressured if the protocol’s post-quantum readiness is unclear by 2028; they call for consideration of proposals such as BIP-360 to enable quantum-resistant signature schemes. Other voices, including Pierre Rochard and Samson Mow, downplay near-term danger, citing substantial technical and economic barriers to any practical quantum attack. Consensus in the community: the threat is theoretical today, but ignoring post-quantum preparedness could be costly. Traders should monitor developer coordination, adoption signals for BIP-360 or similar proposals, large on-chain movements of dormant coins, and any shifts in institutional messaging that could affect BTC sentiment.
Neutral
The news is neutral for BTC price in the near term but raises medium-to-long-term risk. Immediate impact is limited because experts (Lopp, Back) say current quantum computers cannot break Bitcoin’s cryptography, so there is no imminent technical attack driving selling. However, the outlined multi-year migration (5–10 years), need for broad coordination, and potential for large on-chain reclaims or transfers introduces operational and perception risks that could weigh on sentiment if left unaddressed. In the short term traders are unlikely to react sharply unless concrete adoption moves (e.g., major exchanges or custodians signaling BIP-360 adoption, or large sustained transfers from dormant wallets) occur. In the medium to long term (through 2028 and beyond), unclear progress on post-quantum readiness could increase volatility and downward pressure as investors price in migration risk or institutional caution. Therefore the most probable market outcome is neutral now, with potential bearish pressure later if coordination and clear adoption signals do not materialize. Traders should watch developer communications, proposals like BIP-360, custodial adoption signals, and on-chain activity for indications of changing risk-premia.