Bitcoin Power-Law Model: Fair Value $142K, $512K Peak by 2025
Bitcoin power-law model sets a long-term fair value at $142,000 and forecasts an upper bound of $512,000 by December 2025. Since March 2024, BTC price has tracked this fair value line in a rare “compressed spring” pattern that historically triggers sharp rallies or brief dips near the lower band around $50,000 before surging.
Institutional inflows into Bitcoin exchange-traded products remain positive, while higher post-halving mining costs are prompting miners to hold coins. Long-term holders have resumed accumulation after recent volatility, underlining renewed confidence in the market.
However, some institutions have tempered expectations. Galaxy Research cut its 2025 forecast from $180,000 to $120,000 after October’s crash, and Ark Invest’s Cathie Wood trimmed her long-term target, citing stablecoin competition and macro risks.
Traders should watch BTC’s price action around the power-law fair value line, volatility levels, regulatory developments, and capital flows to time entries and manage risk. Tracking the Bitcoin power-law model’s fair value line has historically offered traders clear signals for entry and exit points.
Bullish
Bitcoin’s proximity to its power-law model’s fair value at $142K and the established “compressed spring” pattern historically precede sharp rallies, suggesting bullish momentum. Positive institutional inflows, miners’ and long-term holders’ accumulation reinforce market support. Although Galaxy Research and Ark Invest have lowered their forecasts due to macro risks and stablecoin competition, these adjustments moderate but do not reverse the positive trend. Traders can expect volatility but should be positioned for an upside move toward the $512K upper band by 2025.