Bitcoin Holds $77K as Hot CPI Raises Fed Rate Risks

Published: 2026-09-12 13:05:24 |

Bitcoin fell below $80,000 after stronger-than-expected US payrolls initially increased pressure on risk assets and briefly lifted rate-hike expectations. Traders then focused on the August Producer Price Index, Consumer Price Index and the Federal Reserve’s September meeting. The later CPI report showed headline inflation rising 0.4% month on month and 3.4% year on year, broadly matching forecasts. However, core CPI increased 0.3% month on month, above the 0.2% estimate. Markets raised the implied probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike to nearly 90%, compared with about 72% a day earlier. Bitcoin remained near $77,250, showing a limited immediate reaction because the moderately hawkish data had been partly priced in after a stronger PPI reading. The 10-year US Treasury yield briefly reached 4.9915% before falling below 5%, while US equities gained. This suggested investors did not view the CPI report as a new systemic shock. Bitcoin remains vulnerable to higher yields, tighter monetary policy and reduced risk appetite. US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded about $450 million in net outflows from 8–10 September, including $282.7 million on 10 September. Traders are watching support near $76,000–$77,000 and resistance around $82,500. The 15–16 September Fed meeting is the next major catalyst, with policy guidance likely to matter more than an already anticipated rate increase.

Bearish

The near-term bias for Bitcoin is bearish because core CPI exceeded expectations, markets sharply increased the probability of a Fed rate hike, and Treasury yields remain elevated. Higher rates can reduce liquidity and weaken demand for speculative assets. Bitcoin ETF outflows also indicate selling pressure from an important institutional channel, while the $76,000–$77,000 area is a key support zone that could be tested. The immediate downside reaction has been limited because headline CPI matched forecasts, the 10-year yield retreated below 5%, and US equities remained firm. If the Fed provides less hawkish guidance or signals that the rate increase is already fully priced in, Bitcoin could stabilise or rebound toward $82,500. However, a more hawkish policy outlook, sustained ETF outflows or a break below support would increase the risk of further declines. Over the longer term, Bitcoin’s direction will depend on real yields, liquidity conditions, institutional flows and whether inflation continues to ease.