Bitcoin price at $114K eyes $133–145K, $161–207K cycle highs
Bitcoin price trades near $114,000, with $112,000 as key support. On-chain MVRV deviation bands indicate critical support buckets at $112.8K, $91.4K and $70K. Realized price remains near $52,164, keeping most holders profitable but raising vulnerability if short-term supports fail. Cycle models based on regression project a cycle top between $161K and $207K in 2025. Analysts monitor a potential macro distribution zone at $133K–$145K. Technical structure and Wyckoff mapping suggest a developing distribution phase, with immediate resistance at $133K and $145K, and support at $111.9K and $108K. Bear scenarios forecast retests to $96K, $76K or lower near $48K if $112K fails. Bull scenarios require a breakout above the distribution zone to target $161K–$207K, amid elevated volatility. Traders should watch MVRV levels, distribution signals and regression targets. The Bitcoin price outlook hinges on maintaining support and navigating the $133K–$145K distribution zone.
Neutral
The article presents both bullish projections and downside risks. Regression- and oscillator-based cycle models forecast a bullish cycle top between $161K and $207K in 2025, a pattern consistent with past halving-driven rallies. However, the emerging distribution zone at $133K–$145K and potential support retests to $96K or lower introduce caution, echoing historical distribution phases before major corrections in 2013 and 2017. Traders face a balancing act between upside targets and the risk of breakdowns below $112K. Short-term trading may see volatility around the distribution band, while long-term investors should focus on maintaining key supports and monitoring on-chain MVRV signals. This mixed outlook justifies a neutral market view.