Bitcoin risks retesting $60K as $65K support breaks amid U.S. tariffs and Iran tensions
Bitcoin fell through $65,000 support and faces a likely retest of $60,000 as macro pressures and worsening sentiment weigh on the market. BTC is trading near $64,846 (article time), down ~4.6% in 24 hours, ~5% over a week and ~27% over 30 days. The Crypto Fear & Greed Index sits at 5 (“Extreme Fear”), and Bitcoin has posted five consecutive monthly declines. Analysts cite rising geopolitical tensions with Iran and renewed U.S. tariff moves — including President Trump raising proposed global tariffs and re-imposing measures under the Trade Act — as catalysts that have pushed investors toward safe havens like gold and silver and away from risk assets such as crypto. On-chain data from Glassnode shows the seven-day EMA of Bitcoin’s net realized P&L near -$480m (it hit -$1.24bn on Feb. 6), indicating realized losses and ongoing investor capitulation as the market forms a base. Futures positioning at the CME suggests institutional activity may be shifting: large traders reduced short exposure, moving net positioning from roughly +1,000 contracts a month ago to about -1,600 contracts recently, which could signal emerging long interest. Analysts warn, however, that a durable bottom is not confirmed and that failure of key supports could send BTC toward $40,000. Primary keywords: Bitcoin price, $60K retest, Bitcoin support, U.S. tariffs, Iran tensions. Secondary/semantic keywords: Crypto Fear & Greed Index, Glassnode, CME futures, realized losses, investor capitulation, institutional positioning.
Bearish
The article highlights broken technical support ($65k), sharp downside over 30 days (-27%), and extreme fear readings — clear short-term bearish signals. Macro catalysts (U.S. tariff moves and Iran tensions) are causing risk-off flows into traditional safe havens, reducing demand for high-beta assets like Bitcoin. On-chain metrics show realized losses and ongoing investor capitulation, supporting a bearish outlook for near-term price action. Although CME futures positioning shows institutions reducing shorts and flipping to net long (which in past instances preceded rallies), positioning alone does not confirm a market bottom. This creates a risk-off environment where a supportive base may form only after further damage; failure of $60k — and then $40k if broader support collapses — remains plausible. Short-term implication: elevated volatility, higher probability of continued downside or range-bound trade while sellers dominate; traders should tighten risk controls, consider smaller position sizes, and use stops or hedges. Long-term implication: if institutional accumulation continues and macro shock abates, a structural recovery remains possible, but timing is uncertain — traders should watch reclaim of $70k and sustained improvements in on-chain realized P&L and sentiment as signals of a durable bullish turn. Historical parallel: prior episodes where CME positioning flipped (notably April last year) were followed by substantial rallies, but only after capitulation and clear trend reversal indicators appeared.