BTC holds near $66,600 as holiday liquidity thins; core PCE risk looms
Bitcoin (BTC) is trading steady around $66,600 as the holiday weekend thins liquidity and participation. With CME futures closed and ETF activity paused, market stabilizers are weaker, and traders see sellers retaining near-term control.
Institutional buying is present but not lifting broad spot demand. Over the past 30 days, ETF inflows approached 50,000 BTC (its highest since Oct 2025), while corporate/strategic firms accumulated about 44,000 BTC. However, other large holders on-chain have offset these purchases through net distribution.
On-chain and exchange signals point to softer spot demand. CryptoQuant data shows 1,000–10,000 BTC “large holder” wallets shifted to net selling, with combined balances falling by roughly 12,000 BTC over the last year. Coinbase spot pricing also remains relatively discounted, suggesting muted U.S. demand.
Macro sensitivity remains the key catalyst. Enflux links current BTC range behavior to shifting Fed rate-cut expectations, supported by a jump in the ISM prices-paid index to 78.3 in March. The next major trigger is core PCE on April 9: if March core PCE rises above February’s 3.1%, rate-cut expectations may fade further, increasing downside risk. CryptoQuant also flags a potential resistance zone for BTC at $71,500–$81,200.
Bearish
BTC’s near-term setup looks pressured despite strong ETF headlines. Holiday-thinned liquidity plus paused CME/ETF activity reduces natural price support, while on-chain “large holder” distribution and a Coinbase spot discount both signal weaker U.S. spot demand. The macro trigger is April 9 core PCE: hotter-than-expected inflation would likely cool rate-cut expectations, which historically tightens financial conditions and can weigh on BTC. Even if any relief bounce occurs, CryptoQuant flags resistance in the $71,500–$81,200 zone, limiting upside follow-through.