Bitcoin Price Faces $77K Support Test Before Fed Decision
Bitcoin price remained below $80,000 as analysts warned that continued selling could bring the $77,000 support zone into view. Bitcoin failed to close above its 50-day EMA near $80,765, which may now act as resistance. Bitfinex analysts identified support between $77,000 and $77,765, while QCP Capital sees a near-term trading range of $78,000 to $86,000. Bitcoin futures open interest rose to about 669,253 BTC despite falling prices, a combination that could increase volatility if leveraged positions are unwound. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110.34 million in net inflows on October 26, following substantial withdrawals in the prior two sessions. Traders are also watching the Federal Reserve decision, energy-driven inflation risks and major technology-company earnings. A break below $77,000 could deepen the correction; reclaiming $80,765 and then $81,500 would improve the recovery outlook.
Bearish
The near-term signals lean bearish: Bitcoin is below $80,000, failed to reclaim its 50-day EMA near $80,765, and faces a potential test of support at $77,000–$77,765. Rising futures open interest during a price decline can point to crowded leveraged positioning, increasing the risk of sharp liquidations and further downside. Similar episodes of weakening support and crowded derivatives positioning have often amplified short-term volatility, though they do not guarantee a continued fall.
There are counterweights. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded $110.34 million in net inflows on October 26, and QCP Capital expects a possible $78,000–$86,000 range. The Federal Reserve decision, inflation concerns linked to energy prices and major technology earnings could all shift risk appetite. A sustained break below $77,000 would strengthen the bearish case and put lower levels, including around $75,000, in focus. Conversely, reclaiming $80,765 and then $81,500 could encourage short covering and improve the recovery outlook toward $86,000. Longer term, ETF demand and institutional purchases may support Bitcoin, but neither removes the risk of near-term volatility.