Bitcoin Price Drops Despite ETF and Strategy Buying, CryptoQuant Says Spot Demand Contracts
Bitcoin price is falling even as spot Bitcoin ETFs and Michael Saylor-led Strategy activity increases, according to CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno. On Friday (March 27), BTC slid toward the $65,000 level amid broader market uncertainty.
Moreno points to a key on-chain explanation: overall spot demand for BTC is still contracting. He referenced the “Demand Growth” metric, which compares newly accumulated BTC versus unmoved coins over a year, while excluding spot ETF and Strategy flows to highlight the divergence. The takeaway for traders is that ETF inflows and Strategy’s treasury buys are not yet enough to offset weaker aggregate spot demand.
The article also notes that Strategy remains the main driver of treasury demand. While many BTC treasury firms reduced activity after 2025’s high, Strategy continued purchasing. It recently added over 1,000 BTC, taking its holdings to about 762,099 BTC (around 3.81% of circulating supply). Meanwhile, U.S. spot ETFs recorded four consecutive weeks of capital inflows before the latest negative performance.
At the time of writing, after dipping to around $65,500, the Bitcoin price was hovering near $66,300, with BTC down more than 4% over the past 24 hours (CoinGecko).
Bearish
The news argues that even with positive headlines around spot Bitcoin ETF inflows and Strategy treasury purchases, the underlying “spot demand” signal is still contracting. That mismatch often precedes choppy or downward price action: when marginal buyers (as reflected in aggregate spot demand) slow down, price can fall despite strong pockets of institutional interest.
In the short term, the article highlights a near-term bearish pressure channel: ETF/treasury buys are not translating into enough net spot accumulation, which can keep BTC vulnerable to macro-driven risk-off moves. A similar pattern has appeared historically when ETF narratives turned positive, but broader market liquidity and spot demand failed to expand—leading to rallies that stalled or reversed.
In the long term, Strategy’s persistent treasury demand is still supportive. If spot demand later re-expands (for example, as broader liquidity improves), the same ETF inflow data could become more price-effective. But based on this report’s emphasis on contracting overall spot demand, traders should treat the current setup as more bearish than neutral until aggregate demand indicators improve.