Bitcoin Price Floor Elusive as BTC Logs Fourth Weekly Drop

Published: 2025-11-24 13:57:54 |

Bitcoin price extended its decline, marking a fourth consecutive weekly drop – a rare occurrence in over 500 days. Over the past month, the Bitcoin price fell 30.6%, pushing its drawdown from the all-time high to nearly 36%. On-chain data reveals fast capitulation by short-term holders, who are realising losses of $523 million daily – the highest since the FTX collapse. Equity markets haven’t corrected yet, but Bitcoin topped out ahead of stocks again, signalling potential further weakness. Crypto derivatives saw $3.9 billion in losses last week after $19.2 billion on October 10. Seasonality offered no relief: November is down 21.3% versus a ten-year average gain of 40%, and October logged its first negative close in seven years. On the macro front, US labour metrics show a cooling yet controlled job market, supporting a Fed pause. Consumer sentiment declined, and housing data remained weak. Regulatory and adoption milestones included the US reviewing an IRS proposal for global crypto reporting and El Salvador buying 1,090 BTC for $100 million. These dynamics underscore persistent market stress and evolving regulatory pressures.

Bearish

The fourth consecutive weekly decline, rare in over 500 days, combined with on-chain capitulation by short-term holders and sustained derivatives losses, signals deep market stress. Historically, similar sell-offs around the FTX collapse led to multi-month consolidations before recovery. The failure of seasonality and equity corrections to provide support underscores weakening momentum. Macro data—cooling labour markets, soft consumer sentiment, and weak housing—reinforce a Fed rate pause but offer little upside catalyst. While sovereign buys and regulatory clarity can stabilize sentiment, near-term trading risks remain elevated. Traders should prepare for continued volatility and monitor capitulation metrics for potential relief points, while long-term recovery may hinge on improved macro conditions and renewed institutional demand.