Bitcoin Price Leads Global M2 by Months, Signaling Future Rally
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital highlights a crucial timing mismatch: Bitcoin peaked in November 2021 while the Global M2 money supply continued rising until April 2022. This five-month divergence suggests BTC may act as a leading liquidity indicator rather than moving in lockstep with monetary expansion. Another analyst, Crypto Con, shows a recurring pattern where shifts in Global M2 precede Bitcoin rallies or declines by roughly ten weeks. Based on the current forward-shifted M2’s upward trend, BTC could see further gains into early September 2025.
Bullish
Historical data show that expansions in Global M2 tend to precede Bitcoin rallies by around ten weeks, suggesting rising liquidity will drive prices higher. The five-month BTC–M2 divergence in 2021–22 underscores Bitcoin’s role as an early macro signal. With forward-shifted M2 still climbing, traders can expect continued upside into early September 2025, making this outlook bullish for both short-term trades and long-term positioning.