Bitcoin price-metric basket shows longest capitulation since FTX
Glassnode says the Bitcoin price-metric basket is in its coldest capitulation phase since the late-2022 FTX collapse. Its “Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap” tracks 45 BTC-cycle indicators and keeps 2026 largely in the blue “capitulation” zone, after a prior euphoria phase in Nov 2021 and a blue flip across much of 2022.
Co-founder Rafael Schultze-Kraft said the current readings are cold, but not yet the unanimous deep-blue pattern that previously marked the bear-market floor. The heatmap also weights investor profitability by short-term holders (STH) and long-term holders (LTH), and stresses that signals like dormancy (days BTC stays idle on-chain) can vary by cycle as the holder base ages.
On Glassnode’s Market Pulse, on-chain activity has strengthened: daily active addresses and entity-adjusted transfer volumes moved above upper statistical bands, pointing to higher network engagement and economic throughput. Capital outflow stabilization persists even after a knee-jerk reaction tied to a low-entropy bug exploit involving Coldcard hardware wallets. CryptoQuant data likened the rise in sub-1 BTC transactions to patterns seen after the FTX implosion, with daily totals reaching 39,600 BTC on Jul 31 versus 39,900 BTC on Nov 16, 2022.
Overall, the Bitcoin price-metric basket suggests the market is still working through the late-bear phase, but it is closer to historical “capitulation” conditions than earlier in the cycle.
Neutral
Glassnode’s “Bitcoin price-metric basket” being at its coldest capitulation since the FTX collapse usually aligns with late-bear stabilization, which can be mildly supportive for dips. However, the article stresses the heatmap is not yet the unanimous deep-blue that historically marked the true bottom. That means traders should treat this as a cycle timing signal, not a confirmed reversal.
Short term: stronger active addresses and transfer volumes, plus stabilized outflows, can reduce the odds of an immediate sharp selloff, even after the Coldcard-related low-entropy bug reaction.
Long term: if the basket moves further into the deepest capitulation zone, it could increase the probability of a durable base and later trend turn—similar to how previous cycles transitioned from blue capitulation into recovery. Until the “deep-blue floor” is reached, expectations should remain cautious and risk-managed, with possible volatility around macro/liquidity shocks.