Bitcoin Price Risks $74K as 50-Week EMA Is Tested
Bitcoin price fell to about $76,800 after losing the $78,000-$78,200 support zone, extending its decline from the September 4 high near $82,280. Short-term momentum remains bearish: the four-hour RSI dropped to 34.25 and the Supertrend turned negative, with resistance near $79,060.
Bitcoin price is now testing its 50-week EMA near $77,000. Analyst Ted Pillows warned that a weekly close below this level could expose the $72,000-$74,000 area. Immediate support is between $76,000 and $76,500, while the 50-day and 200-day moving averages near $70,000 provide deeper support.
Macro conditions are also weighing on Bitcoin. US producer-price inflation rose 0.4% in August and 5.4% year on year, while higher oil prices and Treasury yields increased pressure on risk assets. Markets are watching upcoming US consumer inflation data and the Federal Reserve’s September 15-16 policy meeting.
Traders may see a recovery if BTC reclaims $78,000, potentially triggering short liquidations and a move toward liquidity clusters around $80,000-$80,600. Failure to recover $78,000 would leave Bitcoin vulnerable to another test of $76,000 and possibly a deeper correction.
Bearish
The near-term market signal is bearish. Bitcoin has formed lower highs, lost the $78,000 support zone and remains below its 20-day moving average. The four-hour RSI at 34.25 shows weak momentum, while the bearish Supertrend places recovery resistance near $79,060. A weekly close below the 50-week EMA near $77,000 could accelerate selling toward $72,000-$74,000.
Macro conditions add downside risk. Stronger US inflation, elevated oil prices and Treasury yields can reduce demand for volatile assets by increasing the appeal of cash and government bonds. Similar inflation surprises and hawkish Federal Reserve expectations have historically triggered Bitcoin pullbacks, although crypto markets can rebound quickly when leveraged short positions are crowded.
The main short-term upside catalyst is a reclaim of $78,000. That move could force profitable shorts to close and push BTC toward the $80,000-$80,600 liquidation area. Negative funding also raises the possibility of a short squeeze. However, unless Bitcoin regains $79,060 and sustains momentum, rebounds may remain corrective. Longer term, the broader structure is not fully broken because BTC remains above its 50-day and 200-day averages near $70,000. The upcoming US CPI release and the Fed meeting are therefore likely to determine whether this is a temporary pullback or the start of a deeper trend reversal.