Bitcoin Price Tests $78K as Momentum Weakens
Bitcoin price initially fell about 1% on September 8 after losing the former $79,500 support, with negative capital flows and liquidation clusters near $78,000 increasing downside risk. By September 9, BTC had slipped below $79,000 after failing to sustain gains above $81,000 and traded near $78,900.
Short-term Bitcoin price momentum has weakened. On the four-hour chart, BTC is below the Bollinger Band midpoint at $79,187, while the ADX reading of 18.31 points to a weak trend. Support is concentrated near $78,000, close to the lower Bollinger Band at $78,084. A confirmed break below this level could trigger long liquidations and send Bitcoin towards $77,000, followed by $76,300-$76,000.
Liquidity between $79,200 and $80,000 could fuel a short squeeze and lift BTC towards $80,300. Reclaiming $79,500 would improve the short-term outlook, while resistance remains around $80,600 and $81,000-$82,000. A move above $84,000 would weaken the bearish divergence case.
Daily indicators remain relatively constructive. Bitcoin trades slightly above its 10-day moving average, while its RSI is 61.29, above the neutral 50 level. However, the RSI remains below its recent signal average, and analyst Gerla has identified bearish divergence. The bearish setup would become more credible after a confirmed break below approximately $76,000. Treasury yields and Federal Reserve interest-rate expectations could add volatility to BTC and other risk assets.
Bearish
The immediate outlook for Bitcoin is bearish because BTC has lost the $79,500 support and remains below the $81,000 level it recently failed to reclaim. Weak four-hour momentum, an ADX of 18.31, negative capital flows and bearish RSI divergence suggest limited short-term conviction among buyers. A confirmed break below $78,000 could trigger long liquidations and accelerate a move towards $77,000 and $76,000.
The downside view is not conclusive over the longer term. Bitcoin remains above key daily moving averages, and its RSI at 61.29 is still above neutral territory. A recovery above $79,500, followed by $80,300 and the $81,000-$82,000 resistance zone, could force short covering and stabilise the market. A move above $84,000 would further weaken the bearish setup. However, until BTC reclaims these levels, liquidation risks, Treasury yields and Federal Reserve policy expectations are likely to keep volatility elevated and favour defensive trading.