Bitcoin Price Faces $76K Risk as $78K Support Weakens
Bitcoin price initially pulled back from the 28 August high of $81,455, trading between roughly $76,400 and $77,100 on 2 September. A sustained break below $76,000, particularly $75,000, was seen as a signal of further weakness, while resistance remained between $77,000 and $79,250. The rebound from $76,229 also lacked strong volume confirmation.
By 8 September, Bitcoin price had fallen about 1% to around $78,450 after failing to hold the former $79,500 support level. A four-hour Chaikin Money Flow reading of -0.10 indicated net selling pressure. A decisive four-hour close below the $78,000-$78,200 zone, which includes the four-hour Supertrend, could expose BTC to $77,000 and $76,000. Reclaiming $79,500 could support a move towards $80,600 and the $81,000-$82,000 resistance area.
The broader daily trend remains constructive. Bitcoin is above its 20-, 50-, 100- and 200-day moving averages, while an ADX reading of 48.35 points to a strong trend. However, negative capital flows, repeated rejection below $82,300 and liquidation clusters near $78,000 and $80,500-$80,700 increase the risk of short-term volatility. Strong US employment data, persistent inflation and expectations of elevated Federal Reserve interest rates could add pressure to BTC and other risk assets. Traders should monitor the $78,000 support and $79,500 resistance for confirmation of the next move.
Bearish
The short-term setup is bearish because Bitcoin has lost the former $79,500 support, remains below the $82,300 rejection area and is showing negative capital flows. The four-hour Chaikin Money Flow reading of -0.10 suggests that selling is exceeding buying. A break below the $78,000-$78,200 support and Supertrend zone could trigger leveraged long liquidations and send BTC towards $77,000, $76,000 or potentially $75,000. Liquidation clusters around $78,000 could amplify the move and increase market instability.
The medium- and long-term picture is less negative. BTC remains above its major daily moving averages, the ADX at 48.35 signals a strong trend, and the broader daily structure has not yet broken down. A recovery above $79,500 could therefore restore upside momentum towards $80,600 and the $81,000-$82,000 resistance zone. However, until that reclaim occurs, macro pressure from potentially higher-for-longer US interest rates and repeated resistance rejections favour a cautious or bearish trading bias.