Bitcoin may drop $70K as Strategy’s STRC falls below $100
Bitcoin (BTC) is up after Strategy disclosed a major purchase, but several signals point to a potential pullback. On Monday, BTC rose about 2.66% to around $75,800 following Strategy’s $2.54 billion buy, its third-largest ever and roughly equivalent to 2.5 months of new BTC supply.
The key risk is funding capacity via Strategy’s preferred stock, Stretch (STRC). STRC has been trading below its $100 par value since April 15. The article notes that when STRC trades under $100, Strategy has previously paused or slowed Bitcoin buying, and BTC has tended to fall sharply in those periods. It also highlights that Strategy funded most of its latest 34,164 BTC purchase through STRC, generating over $2.17B via at-the-market sales (April 13–April 19), with Class A common stock sales adding about $366M.
Technically, Bitcoin’s chart shows a flag consolidation drifting toward support. If support breaks, BTC could test $67,000–$69,000. However, upside isn’t off the table: the 20-day and 50-day EMAs are acting as dynamic support, and holding above them would support a rebound. A bullish invalidation would involve breaking resistance near $78,000, potentially targeting the 200-day EMA near $82,750.
Broader risk sentiment also worsened as U.S. stock indexes fell amid uncertainty around the US–Iran truce extension, adding pressure on Bitcoin near-term.
Bearish
The article’s core bearish trigger is the change in Strategy’s funding channel. STRC trading below its $100 par value since April 15 is framed as a practical constraint on Strategy’s ability to keep buying Bitcoin this week. Historically cited in the piece: when STRC is below $100, BTC has tended to drop sharply, suggesting that a “buy slowdown” can translate quickly into price pressure.
On top of that, the technical setup is not supportive yet. Bitcoin is described as being in a flag consolidation drifting toward the lower boundary, and the downside scenario ($67K–$69K) becomes actionable if support breaks. While the 20-day and 50-day EMAs may cushion declines, traders typically treat these as “line in the sand” levels—meaning volatility can remain elevated until BTC proves demand.
Macro adds another headwind. Weakened risk sentiment from equity weakness tied to US–Iran truce uncertainty often reduces appetite for high-beta assets like Bitcoin. In the short term, that combination (possible Strategy buying pause + bearish chart structure + macro caution) increases the odds of a liquidity-driven pullback. In the long term, if STRC stays constrained, the market may reprice Bitcoin’s near-term demand profile; however, if BTC holds key EMAs or breaks above ~$78K, that would invalidate the bearish setup and reopen upside toward the 200-day EMA area near $82.75K.