Traders Position for Sub-$80K Bitcoin Start to 2026, Says Derive
Bitcoin traders are shifting into defensive option positions that imply a notable probability of BTC trading below $80,000 at the start of 2026, according to Nick Forster, co-founder of derivatives desk Derive. Market data show concentrated put open interest around the $84,000 and $80,000 strikes, especially into the Dec. 26 expiry. BTC was trading near $87,000 at publication, about 30% below the Oct. 8 all-time high of $126,000. Forster warned the downtrend may not be over: short-dated volatility is higher than long-dated volatility, signaling traders expect outsized swings into the new year. Key figures: BTC price (~$87k), record high (~$126k), targeted strikes ($84k, $80k), expiry (Dec. 26). Primary keyword: Bitcoin; secondary keywords: BTC, options, puts, volatility, open interest. Implication for traders: increased put buying and elevated short-term volatility suggest hedging demand and higher downside risk into January 2026.
Bearish
The article describes concentrated put-buying at $84k and $80k strikes into a near-term expiry and short-term volatility exceeding long-term volatility. Those are classic indicators of hedging and downside protection, implying market participants expect or fear a fall in BTC prices. Put open interest concentration into a specific expiry often precedes price moves toward those strikes as traders hedge or take directional bearish bets. Historically, similar elevated put skew and higher short-dated volatility accompanied periods of increased downside risk and led to near-term declines (for example, large put flows before past Bitcoin pullbacks in 2021–2022). Short-term market impact: increased selling pressure or reduced risk appetite, wider spreads, and higher implied volatility — favouring protective hedges, bearish option strategies, and reduced leverage. Long-term impact: if realized volatility and price action do push BTC below $80k, it could reset short-term sentiment and trigger further deleveraging; if BTC holds above those strikes, the elevated hedging may unwind and volatility could decline. Overall, the positioning signals heightened downside risk around the turn of the year rather than a bullish catalyst.