Bitcoin worst kwata since 2018 as Fed and Iran dey press BTC ETF flows
Bitcoin record im worst quarter since early 2018, e drop about 22% for Q1 2026. After e start dey weak around February, Bitcoin fall reach roughly $66,700 by quarter-end, with intraday losses reach as high as 34.6%.
Di selloff na mainly driven by macro things. Tension wey escalate for Iran matter, worry about tariffs, and Fed wey still hawkish scatter risk appetite and tighten market liquidity. Compared to other majors after the Iran-war start on Feb 28, Bitcoin fall small pass gold (about -17%) but e still underperform equity selloff (Nasdaq and S&P both about -7% to -8%).
Analysts dey call am “macro-driven reset” not structural break. Important for traders say U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF demand don dey stable: assets dey around $100B, and net inflows return for March after earlier outflows. Better liquidity and renewed ETF absorption fit help market handle bigger swings.
Near-term direction go depend on next U.S. monetary policy signals. Zeus Research expect say if Fed pause or ease e fit loosen liquidity and support Bitcoin, but if dem keep hawkish e fit increase sell pressure. Rate-cut odds still low, and geopolitical escalation risk still dey focus.
Aside from demand/flow factors, supply signals show up too. Miner Riot Platforms sell over $250M worth of BTC in Q1, reduce holdings to 15,680 BTC.
Traders suppose watch Bitcoin key range around $66,000–$70,000 and next catalysts from Fed rhetoric, spot BTC ETF flows, and geopolitical headlines.
Bearish
Bitcoin drop for Q1 na wide and na driven by macro, and both articles dey stress say the Fed still be the swing factor. With rate-cut odds low and geopolitical risks still active, liquidity fit remain tight, wey historically dey raise selling pressure on Bitcoin. Even though the spot Bitcoin ETF story improve for March (supportive for demand), the quarter still get extra supply from miners (Riot sell >$250M BTC), wey limit the upside.
Short-term, this one keep Bitcoin range-bound and sensitive to ETF flow prints and Fed rhetoric (bullish relief rallies fit soon fade if hawkishness return). Long-term, the “macro reset” framing dey suggest say e no too mean say permanent structural breakdown don happen; but until clearer easing expectations and sustained ETF inflows show, traders suppose expect choppy downside risk and consolidation around the $66k–$70k zone.