Bitcoin Q4 2025 Plunges 23% — Second-Worst Quarter on Record
Bitcoin closed Q4 2025 with a 23.07% loss, marking its second-worst fourth-quarter performance on record (behind Q4 2018’s -42.16%), according to Coinglass. The result is far below Bitcoin’s historical average Q4 return of 77.07% and the median of 47.73% since 2013. Ethereum also posted heavy losses, falling 28.28% in Q4 2025 — its fourth-worst Q4 — reflecting broad market weakness. Late-December sell-offs, reduced trading volumes and capital outflows hit major assets, including DeFi and infrastructure tokens. The breakdown of the long-standing seasonal Q4 rally suggests a shift in market behavior heading into 2026, removing an expected year-end tailwind for traders.
Bearish
A 23% quarterly drop for Bitcoin and a 28% decline for Ethereum signal significant risk-off sentiment. The failure of the long-established Q4 seasonal rally removes a common year-end bid that traders often rely on for positioning, increasing downside vulnerability in the short term. Lower trading volumes and capital outflows reinforce reduced liquidity and amplify volatility, making short-term price action more disorderly and increasing the likelihood of further drawdowns if macro or crypto-specific negative news arrives. Historically, severe Q4 declines (for example Q4 2018) coincided with extended bear markets and required months to recover; if macro conditions remain unfavorable, the market could enter a protracted consolidation or decline. However, long-term holders and institutional buyers could treat deep pullbacks as accumulation opportunities, providing a possible technical floor over months. Overall, expect short-term bearish pressure with elevated volatility; medium-to-long-term outlook depends on macro liquidity, on-chain flows, and whether buying interest returns.