Analyst: Bitcoin Q4 Peak Doesn’t Depend on Halving Cycle
Crypto analyst PlanC argues that Bitcoin’s price peak no longer hinges on the Bitcoin halving cycle. He warns that forecasting a Q4 high based on past halving events misunderstands statistical probability. The rise of institutional capital and US spot Bitcoin ETFs has diluted the traditional impact of the halving cycle on price. PlanC notes that only self-fulfilling psychological factors link Bitcoin halving to price surges. Traders should focus on ETF flows, on-chain metrics and market sentiment rather than relying solely on halving cycle predictions. Ignoring this shift could lead to missed signals in the evolving Bitcoin market.
Neutral
This analysis is neutral because it challenges the traditional view that halving drives Bitcoin’s price peak but doesn’t introduce new bullish or bearish catalysts. By debunking overreliance on the halving cycle, PlanC shifts focus to ETF flows, on-chain metrics and market sentiment—factors that can stabilize trading rather than trigger strong directional moves. Historically, halving hype has spurred speculative rallies, while ETF approvals have offered steady capital inflows. The combined message is one of equilibrium: traders may adjust strategies but won’t see an outright rally or sell-off solely from this insight.