Bitcoin Q4 Slump: Whale Sell-Offs, Tax Sales and Strong Dollar
Bitcoin has underperformed in Q4 2025 as long-term holders and recent buyers offload coins to lock in gains. Whale sell-offs began in July and accelerated in October, according to Glassnode and analyst PlanB. Investors are also harvesting tax gains and rotating funds into gold, which rose 60% year-to-date compared to Bitcoin’s 10%.
A strong U.S. dollar has further drained liquidity. Analyst Willy Woo warns that a high DXY drives risk-off sentiment, decoupling Bitcoin from equities. Fidelity’s Chris Kuiper adds that year-end tax strategies and portfolio shifts explain continued supply pressure. On-chain data shows that seller exhaustion remains incomplete.
Market watchers expect relief if the U.S. government shutdown resolves and liquidity returns. Bitcoin’s historical Q4 average gains exceed 40%, suggesting a potential rally if whale distribution eases. Traders should monitor on-chain flows and dollar trends for late-quarter bounce signals.
Bearish
The combination of sustained whale sell-offs, year-end tax harvesting and a strong U.S. dollar has drained liquidity and heightened selling pressure on Bitcoin. On-chain data from Glassnode and commentary from Fidelity and Willy Woo confirm incomplete seller exhaustion and risk-off sentiment. Similar patterns in past Q4 periods led to short-term corrections before year-end rallies. However, current macro headwinds suggest continued downward pressure in the near term. Traders should watch for a slowdown in whale distribution and a weakening DXY as prerequisites for any significant rebound.