Bitcoin quantum risk and imminent US CLARITY Act heighten regulatory focus
At the LONGITUDE conference in Hong Kong, industry leaders flagged two immediate themes for crypto traders: Bitcoin’s vulnerability to future quantum computing attacks and accelerating US regulatory clarity. Panelists including Capriole’s Charles Edwards and BIP-360 co-author Ethan Heilman warned that Bitcoin is not yet quantum-resistant — Heilman estimated a seven-year transition to post-quantum security — and urged markets to price in that risk. Separately, White House official David Sacks signaled the CLARITY Act is likely to pass, which could improve SEC–CFTC coordination and encourage institutional inflows. Speakers such as Justin Sun (Tron), John Lilic, Matthew Roszak, and others discussed standards for blockchain, AGI, and infrastructure readiness; Offchain Labs and Monad representatives cautioned that current infrastructure may be insufficient for trillion-dollar institutional capital despite optimism for 2025. Market data cited: BTC ~ $66.9K, RSI ~34 (downtrend/oversold), supports near $65.1K and $62.9K; resistances near $70.6K and $67.1K. Key takeaways for traders: account for long-term quantum risk when sizing positions, monitor regulatory progress on the CLARITY Act for institutional flow catalysts, and watch BTC critical supports ($65K–$63K) for near-term risk management.
Neutral
The net market impact is neutral. The conference highlighted two contrasting forces: a longer-term technical risk (quantum vulnerability) that argues for discounted valuation or hedging, and a nearer-term regulatory catalyst (CLARITY Act) that could be bullish by unlocking institutional flows. Short-term price action is more likely to respond to technicals and liquidity — the report shows BTC in a downtrend with RSI ~34 and key supports near $65K–$63K; that suggests short-term caution and potential volatility around those levels. Over the medium to long term, regulatory clarity (if the CLARITY Act passes and improves SEC–CFTC coordination) tends to be bullish by lowering institutional entry barriers, as seen in prior episodes where clearer rules preceded capital inflows (e.g., ETF approvals). Conversely, confirmation of substantial technical risk (a credible quantum attack timeline without mitigation) would be bearish for long-term valuation until post-quantum upgrades are adopted. Traders should therefore: 1) treat the news as a mixed signal, 2) maintain risk controls around the cited support levels, and 3) monitor regulatory developments as potential catalysts for increased institutional positioning.