Research: Quantum Risk Imposes 20% Fair-Value Discount on Bitcoin — Could Reach 60% by 2028
New research from Capriole Investments founder Charles Edwards models a “Quantum Discount Factor” that reduces Bitcoin’s fair value due to the future risk that quantum computing (Q-Day) could break Bitcoin’s cryptography. Edwards aggregates expert probability estimates of Q-Day and assumes a realistic 2‑year window to upgrade Bitcoin’s protection (1–3 years range). Using these inputs, the study estimates a roughly 20% fair-value discount in 2026 attributable to quantum risk, rising to nearly 40% in 2027, about 60% in 2028 and roughly 75% in 2029 if no upgrade occurs. The research highlights that up to 30% of BTC supply (addresses with exposed public keys) could be at immediate risk of theft and liquidation if Q-Day arrives, which would severely undermine Bitcoin’s “trust the code” and hard‑money narratives. At the time of reporting, BTC traded around $67,700 and had been relatively flat. Primary keywords: Bitcoin, quantum computing, Q-Day, fair value discount. Secondary/semantic keywords: quantum risk, upgrade window, public-key exposure, market discount factor, BTC price impact.
Bearish
The research increases perceived systemic risk for Bitcoin by quantifying the chance that quantum computing could materially compromise BTC cryptography and a substantial share of supply. That raises an explicit valuation haircut (20% today, larger later if no upgrade), which is negative for market sentiment and could justify lower price targets from risk‑sensitive traders and institutions. Short-term impact: likely heightened volatility and increased demand for safe-on-chain practices (e.g., moving funds from exposed public-key addresses), selective profit-taking, and risk-off flows into stablecoins or fiat as some traders reprice horizon risk. Long-term impact: if development and coordination deliver credible quantum-resistant upgrades within the assumed window (1–3 years), the discount could shrink and sentiment recover; if not, the market could permanently reprice Bitcoin lower and see increased regulatory and custodial focus. Historical parallels: security-related existential risk (e.g., major protocol bugs or catastrophic exchange hacks) often trigger multi-week sell-offs and higher volatility; however, clear mitigation paths (patches, hard forks, improved custody) usually restore confidence over months. For traders: monitor on-chain movement of long-term addresses (exposed public keys), developer signals about upgrade readiness, institutional statements, and changes in implied volatility—adjust position sizing and risk limits accordingly.